This won't happen unless they outright ban non-EV vehicles which is unlikely considering how many people are still using old cars and cannot afford new cars, how many car enthusiasts are there, and not to mention potential lobbying from big oil.
So 20 years from now, all the old gas regular people cars have aged out. You’re left with what, 1 or 2% of enthusiasts cars? Seems like success to me, and fairly inevitable
There will undoubtedly be a death spiral of sorts when it comes to gas stations, refineries, etc. where they become fewer and farther between as less people buy fuel. And that makes it more expensive and inconvenient, so more people buy EVs, which in turn...
Death spiral to gas stations? why? EV cars need to charge somewhere (and on long trip it can’t be at home) and people need to take a break and grab a coffee sometime too. They will change, sure, but certainly not die.
Refineries will be fewer but we do need another products from them also.
Presumably a lot of people will charge at home which significantly cuts down the number of stations needed or the traffic to those stations.
For example, I have 2 gas stations within a mile of my home. They stay pretty busy because people around me constantly need to fill up. I, on the other hand, basically never visit either of those stations since I switched to an EV. I charge at home.
If everyone around me switched to EVs, those stations could not stay in business. There's a grocery store in the same area which makes anything those stations offer obsolete.
Those are the majority of gas stations that die with a mass switch over to EVs. There's a gas station for my hometown without an attached convenience store with 300 people there. There's no way that station stays in service if a significant portion of the community switches to EVs. It already struggles to be profitable as is (I know the owner).
That might be the case in places where most people live in single-family homes with dedicated garage.
Where I live (Spain) that's not the case at all - our towns are very dense. People in big cities tend to live mostly in flats (Europe's highest elevators-per-capita). Even people in the countryside, where it's more common to have a 1-family homes, often don't have a dedicated garage.
Chargers can be anywhere. They are at grocery stores, parking lots, restaurants, I can see the need for a dedicated re fuel station to disappear when charging is ubiquitous.
I've seen this on the Autobahns: what were just parking spots with unattended bathrooms are becoming little charging stations. Since I don't have an EV yet, I've not stopped at one to see how high-speed the chargers are, but at the very least, I assume that 10-15 minutes would be enough to get you somewhere more efficient/pleasant to wait for a full charge.
This is what people don’t get. Charging just means parking. The idea of dedicated charging stations where you stand around doing nothing, maybe buying a candy bar, really only make sense in the context of a fuel which is not literally already everywhere.
A place where you can take a break and grab a coffee is called a cafe, not a gas station.
Also, with Chinese manufacturers increasingly pushing out batteries capable of 1000+ km, you'll be able to charge fully at home for increasingly long road trips.
In 2045 petrol stations will be well on the way the being about as rare as places selling paraffin or special racing car fuel today.
I don't see how this is an interesting bet. No new petrol car will have been sold for 10 years. Places selling fuel for large lorries etc will last a bit longer, but these are already a fraction of the total.
Charging stations will only need to be on highways if cities are sensible and build slow charging infrastructure (aka normal wall sockets) in parking spaces. Urban gas stations will be a thing of the past.
Does anyone have reliable data on the number locations selling avgas in say, the U.S. compared to the number of locations selling automobile grade gasoline?
This has already happened in Norway, where 96% of new cars sold are EVs. They didn’t ban combustion but they did support adoption with subsidies and other incentives
The problem is a 50kWh battery in a car is worth more as a battery than a typical £1500 car.
The lowest end of the market won’t have electric cars unless the batteries are shagged (early Leafs)
And given how insanely cheap petrol is (15p a mile, so £450 for a low mileage runaround) the savings even if electric was free and they weren’t introducing a 3p/mile charge isn’t there.
A £1500 car is £1500 because it's expected you'll need to replace the engine or transmission pretty soon. That can be up to a £4000 job (£2500 on the low end).
And, as it turns out, a brand new 50kWh battery costs around £4000 to manufacture. Used will be cheaper.
With most modern ICE cars everything but the transmission and the engine will fail before those two go out.
Also: I don't think that's the usual case. Plenty of sub 2k cars that will happily keep driving for years (I've had 3 such cars). ~700 mark is where you start seeing 300k mile "finish-them-off"-type cars.
Plenty of EVs will drive for years as well (so long as they have a good thermal system for the battery). So I'm not sure what point is being made.
Saying "It costs a lot of money to replace the battery" doesn't mean much as the battery, even if it has 70% of it's original capacity, is still perfectly functional. Very much the same as the engine which also costs a lot of money to replace.
I just thought the parent comment was unfair to ICE cars to make the EV proposition sound better. I'm a fan of EVs but they are still more expensive to buy.
That said, very cheap ICE cars have a sweet spot where any damage to engine / transmission / clutch+flywheel often means replacing the entire car since the repair cost exceeds the market value of the car.
>A £1500 car is £1500 because it's expected you'll need to replace the engine or transmission pretty soon.
Really not true at all. Care to share your sources for this claim? Anecdotally, I've (plus friend and family) owned plenty of beater cars in that ballpark price, and none had failures needing to replace engine or transmission. Most of their faults came in the electronics (sensors, actuators, fuse box, wire harness) plus suspension, body rust, etc basically the same parts EVs also have.
Meanwhile, if you look up 'EV clinic' postings online, you'll see they find plenty of design failures with European and Korean EVs that are basically ticking timebombs(sometimes literally, hello Stellantis) where electric motors, inverters or battery packs are guarantee to fail in a short timeframe due to various design faults that were entirely preventable. Most common faults with poor EV designs I saw, seem to be the seal of the electric motor stator cooling which fails quickly leading coolant to flood the motor rotor killing it, needing a rebuild.
From what I gather from their analysis', the crux of this issue seems to be that some modern EVs, especially those less premium ones, are cost cut to the extreme in a race to the bottom to maintain shareholder value, both at manufacturing but also at design phase, leading to cut corners everywhere and such issues being a common occurrence and manifesting en-masse after their warranty runs out. From their analysis, IIRC Tesla's powertrains seem to be some of the most reliable and well designed, with the likes of Audi, VW, BMW, Mercedes being less so and Stellantis being trash tier.
Meanwhile, plenty of older ICEs are largely immune form such massive reliability faults, because they benefited from decades of industrial design and development experience done in a past era where race to the bottom cost cutting and planned obsolescence weren't yet a thing. So I wouldn't be surprised when an older 1500$ ICE car will last longer than a 1500$ EV.
Battery prices are still falling though, it's just demand is enormous. But I works fully expect China to start having "compatible replacement packs" being built once the volume is there to support it.
A logical future market is battery-refurbished EVs, just a question of where the crossover point is.
"Gas" prices are hiking up here - its about £1.90 per litre of diesel at the moment and petrol isn't much less.
In contrast, my cheaper 'leccy rate is now about 25% less at 5.2p per kWh than it was. Electricity is weird in the UK - its pinned to the price of gas and is currently (lol) rather expensive "on peak" at 27.87p per kWh and there is a day standing charge of 47.71p. That's from Octopus.
We also have a petrol car - an elderly Renault Clio. It does just run and run and is pretty economic for a pretty shagged out ICE.
My EV is cheaper to run, by far. However, its unlikely the battery will last 20 odd years. I haven't yet sat down and done some whole life costs for ICE vs EV yet.
My Saic MG4 can do 300+ miles on a 100% charge of its 78kWh battery. After two years, it still manages to exceed its WLTP (with care, when required) and I quite like the ridiculous 0-30 acceleration etc.
You can also use Claude Code in a VS Code terminal window, which I much prefer for reasons I can’t quite put my finger on. Granted, I’ve moved to Zed in the past few months. I’m doing the same there.
I guess it makes more sense for me to just get Claude Pro instead. I was using my Copilot license only because of Opus 4.6 access as all other models seemed crippled in comparison in Copilot; does not even make sense to upgrade to Pro+ which goes from $10/mo to $40/mo and only gives you access to a model that has 7x the rate - 5x the limit at 7x the rate for 4x the price does not seem appealing at all.
A test to see if they could get away with it. I think we're really in the thick of token rationing right now and the fallout is going to be funny to watch.
Photopea is great but I switched to Pixelmator Pro. I just paid $49.99 one time. It's a clean native app. It doesn't install all these horrors of horror on my system like Photoshop did. It doesn't try to pressure me into using some half baked AI tool. (I mean could you imagine what that must be like being an artist who hates AI and Adobe shoves it in your face?) I can't believe I was paying $40/month for Photoshop for so long. Thankfully I got all my money back and more by shorting Adobe's stock. After spending so many years drinking unicorn blood, no software company deserves to fall more. Everyone who invested in them, hoping to get rich off torturing artists and tax payers, deserves to lose their money too.
I did exactly the same, for creating graphics / posters. Love Pixelmator... is PS better at some stuff? For sure, but it's not stuff I need. Thats adobes issue.
the notion of using time directly in gamedev has always confused me; it feels like the correct answer should be to simply have a notion of turns, and a real-time game simply iterates over turns automatically. And then so many turns are executed per second
It's a simulation; why should clock time be involved to begin with? The only things that should care about clock time are those that exist outside the sim, e.g audio
Simulation can proceed in logical time but animation is necessarily tied to wall clock time in order to be perceived as smooth and consistent by a human viewer.
In that case, animation belongs to the same category as audio — it exists outside the simulation state.
But I’m not 100% that’s even true; in the context of replay, I imagine it’d be more appropriately part of the sim for it to scrub properly.
In the context of networked games with client-side prediction, I think it’d probably be key frames tied to logical time and intermediate frames tied to wallclock
This gets bugged if it takes longer than one tick to run an iteration of game loop. Afaik the typical solution is to have a maximum number of iterations that you'll run and reset accum if it exceeds that.
If memory serves well, that worked by replaying network packets, which is what some other games do as well, the problem with that approach is that for live service games unlike old games that were often "set in stone", the protocol always changes, so it's a huge maintenance burden. You either need to add conversion tools, keep maintaining backwards compatibility with older protocol versions, or you accept that replays quickly become outdated.
> ... or you accept that replays quickly become outdated
That's how Warcraft 3's fully deterministic save files would work. Old replay files would only work tied to one specific patch patch of the game.
But here's the thing: it's still a godsend while in development and it was still a godsend to players too. "Battlenet user spiritwolf beat me even though I had the upper hand, how did he do it? Let's check the replay immediately".
Also if you really think about it: if you plan for it from day one, there's not much preventing your game engine from having a pluggable system where you could have the various different patches of the game engine ship with every subsequent release of the game.
So when 1.03c is out but you want to play a replay meant for version 1.02b, the game automatically just use that version of the game engine.
The only case where this basically ain't working is if there's a patch for a security exploit: that'd probably need to be patched for good.
But for all other cases, backward compatibility for replay files / deterministic game engines is totally doable. It may not be how things are done, but it's totally doable.
> not much preventing your game engine from having a pluggable system where you could have the various different patches of the game engine ship with every subsequent release of the game
Starcraft 2 does that. It's still quite an achievement.
That's helpful data, thank you. Sounds like it may depend on the service. (I'm genuinely shocked to see that many hotmail addresses, and can't help but wonder if there are correlations with other factors.)
System web views were available as drag and drop components in VB6 two and a half decades ago. There's nothing "new" about that as a concept, and plenty of reasons to not want to use Blink/WebKit.
> System web views were available as drag and drop components in VB6 two and a half decades ago. There's nothing "new" about that as a concept
We are in a thread discussing a Rust library, logically, I was referring to the current approach in GUI rendering in the Rust space (such as Tauri and Dioxus).
> and plenty of reasons to not want to use Blink/WebKit.
Such as? Can you name a few objective reasons against Blink/WebKit (the technology) that does not involve just not liking Google/Apple?
> the current approach in GUI rendering in the Rust space (such as Tauri and Dioxus).
Tauri itself doesn't render web views. It uses wry under the hood. Dioxus isn't a web view at all and deserves a fundamentally different purpose.
> Can you name a few objective reasons against Blink/WebKit (the technology) that does not involve just not liking Google/Apple?
If you have a cross platform application, it sucks having to worry about which features work or don't work based on which engine is available and how old it is. You also don't know if there are user scripts being injected that are affecting the experience. It's impossible to debug and many users don't even know what browser engine is being used, they just know your app doesn't work.
If you build for Servo, it works exactly the same on every platform. You could use wry and test that Edge is good on Windows, WebKit works on the past few versions of Macos, gtk WebKit works, etc etc, or you can just use Servo.
Not to mention, Servo is probably much lighter than whatever flavor of chromium the user has installed under the hood.
Linux (GNU/Linux or whatever) doesn’t even have the concept of a system web view. The closest you might get to the notion is probably WebKitGTK which is perhaps the GNOME idea of a system web view, but it’s nothing like WebKit on macOS or WebView2 (or MSHTML in the past) on Windows for popularity or availability.
As a user of a desktop environment other than gnome-shell, I only have webkitgtk-6.0 installed because I chose to install Epiphany—it’s a good proxy for testing on Safari, which Apple makes ridiculously expensive.
That is not the meta. The meta is to ship blink so you only have to support a single version of a single web engine in stead of many versions of many different web engines.
Maybe not general data cap exemption but for as long as I remember a lot of carriers in Europe whitelist certain apps that people think of as "essential" that work even when you've reached your data limit - such as WhatsApp and Messenger. Perhaps there are certain applications specific to South Korea that people think as essential/universal and expect them to work without a data plan (even maybe related to the digital ID thing they have there).
Here in Spain a few years ago some ISP's just put a data cap about 2.7KBPS (2-3G?) and call it a day. Enough for text sites, messages and the like. But if you were smart (mosh, NNTP)... you could connect to some public Unix servers and fire up Lynx/Links at crazy speeds under a Tmux window and be able to read sites/blog posts and the like. And with edbrowse, even comment on some simple JS sites.
With some cachés set for my audio player I could even listen to some odd Avant Gardé radio streams -think Frank Zappa like- at http://dir.xiph.org with 16 KBPS quality in OPUS format. Not totally robotic, it sounded better than old MP3's at 32KBPS.
According to Wikipedia, the DEA gave him immunity on additional charges in return for pleading guilty and running a sting against his associates, but before the DEA knew about the murders.
Seems weird that the DEA can even give him immunity unknown crimes, especially ones that might not be directly related to the case and even weirder that they would offer that. Makes you wonder what kind of leverage/information you have to have to get that kind of plea deal.
This won't happen unless they outright ban non-EV vehicles which is unlikely considering how many people are still using old cars and cannot afford new cars, how many car enthusiasts are there, and not to mention potential lobbying from big oil.
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