It isn't an either/or on Earth. Even the USDA thinks indoor/controlled vertical farming is key in the future [1]
For other planets, we will have to have vertical or underground farming and controlled conditions.
As more and more land on Earth gets used and population increases, climate changes, soil is more and more less fertile, the only way to meet that demand is indoor, up or down.
Even industries like marijuana, where hydroponics and farming is more indoors, much of that is indoors and can be vertical.
There are lots of innovations yet to be made that will make it more of a possibility and ultimately a necessity [2].
When it comes down to it, growing in controlled conditions is easier and less risky, growing outdoors is harder. Though it doesn't work for all right now, the areas it works for those elements are key.
Even growing a single plant indoors versus outdoors, so much less to think about in controlled conditions. Farmers can be wiped out with a flood, or an insect, all of those things are less risky indoors where possible.
Those linked articles from the USDA talk about vertical farming for very niche products: fresh greens mostly and possibly some spices. Vertical farming will not be possible to supply the protein, starch, or oil needs of the world. Only large scale farming (think US Midwest) can provide at this scale. People simply underestimate how many acres of farmland there are or don't appreciate the scale and efficiency of modern farming.
It should also be noted that the world population will peak around ~10B people. We will have plenty of food to feed all of these people (minus corruption and politics).
Again, it isn't either/or right now. It is currently cheaper to use the land and needs to, over decades that will have to change by necessity. I surely do appreciate the scale as I have family in farming and it is massive. However, land is also in demand and will only grow, eventually it won't be economical for many types of crop. Already marijuana and herbs are mostly vertical/indoors. Anything that grows in a greenhouse currently is apt for vertical/indoor farming.
The comments here are alot like the EV comments back in 2000, can't be done, battery tech not there, no way to fuel on long trips etc etc.
Eventually the necessity will require it either due to population, climate change or other planets.
Sure, right this very moment it isn't as viable, but it is for many industries like herbs, marijuana and as you say niche products. That is how all innovations start.
Farming will still be massive on land when this happens as cattle, pigs, chickens etc need lots of land. Many of the biggest farms are cattle ranches so those won't be going anywhere much longer.
I'm not totally arguing against you. Indoor farming will have its place. I would say land is NOT in demand though, population trends clearly shows people/society migrating towards high density cities as opposed to spreading out where there is land (central US). You can literally drive around the Midwest and see tens of millions of acres that have no other purposes than....to just sit there, chilling.
The 'buy land, they don't make more of it' is almost a meme at this point. We have plenty of land.
ETA: I had the spice and niche crops comment in my first comment, so yes we agree. Most of farming is to produce starch,oil, or protein at scale. Spices are a very very very (very) small slice
I hear you on land and population. There is also climate changes, limitations to fertile soil and many other things.
As I mentioned in my edited comment above, most large farms are cattle ranches or livestock that need massive amounts of land. Those also aren't as affected by weather. Unless people stop eating meat (they won't) then ranches will always exist and there will be at least a doubling of the need based on current populations to projected.
For plants, controlled conditions are always better. So when certain crops are viable to do indoors/vertical it will be economical to do so with less risk. That is already the case with marijuana, herbs etc that are smaller but also big business and will grow (no pun intended).
If people do start eating more plants instead of meat, and products move plant based more and more, indoor/vertical farming could become more necessary largely due to access/shipping/fulfillment and even labor availability. Right now current farming would not be able to support if everyone became vegan or vegetarian.
If population does top out and people are happy in cities, then your prediction is probably correct. If people don't want to live in cities as much due to other situations (climate change or pandemics or politics or other) some of that land may be more profitable in other uses. As industries move more remote and housing costs are too high in cities, people will spread out.
Efficiencies also come with indoor/vertical that you can't get on land: limited use of pesticides, recycled water or water constraints, recreating soil fertility, weather control, etc. Where soil is not fertile, vertical/indoor farming is a potential solution as it can go where land based farming can't always.
Final point, indoor/vertical/controlled farming would make humans able to survive on other planets or if anything were to ever happen with events that might make outdoor conditions risky or less viable. Everybody's bunker is going to need a good indoor farm.
For other planets, we will have to have vertical or underground farming and controlled conditions.
As more and more land on Earth gets used and population increases, climate changes, soil is more and more less fertile, the only way to meet that demand is indoor, up or down.
Even industries like marijuana, where hydroponics and farming is more indoors, much of that is indoors and can be vertical.
There are lots of innovations yet to be made that will make it more of a possibility and ultimately a necessity [2].
When it comes down to it, growing in controlled conditions is easier and less risky, growing outdoors is harder. Though it doesn't work for all right now, the areas it works for those elements are key.
Even growing a single plant indoors versus outdoors, so much less to think about in controlled conditions. Farmers can be wiped out with a flood, or an insect, all of those things are less risky indoors where possible.
[1] https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2018/08/14/vertical-farming-...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vertical_farming