> the potential impact of the increased difficulty in having children is.
Less people in the world. Look at Japan and South Korean population projections out 50 to 75 years -- they may cut their populations in half, and it could keep going? Hard to extrapolate trends out that far though...
Sorry, but isn't that a good thing? Putting aside the fact that we're (at least in Europe) paying for a pension fund we'll never have, isn't reducing the amount of people on earth the right solution for basically all problems long term?
Not if it’s unequal, and infertility is a cruel way to lower the population. Wanting kids and struggling to have them absolutely wrecks you emotionally, and it’s even worse for women.
But also, if it’s chemically related it might hit first world countries harder than third world countries. Imagine what would happen if all aid was cut to Africa.
Population reduction is good, but once the world population falls to say 500M and you want to maintain it, you need ~2 babies per woman on average. If conceiving becomes difficult, we may not achieve that and hypothetically end up in a Children Of Men situation.
If there are less kids, the ability to pay for your pension fund in 40 years time will be much much harder than it is today. So barring other fundamental changes, more kids will help.
Most other problems on earth will be solved by more technology.
This is an issue with the pension system. I don’t believe we’re overpopulated but it is clearly a bad system when it relies on a constant flow of more children
Growth helps, but it's not required. What is actually required is stability in the age pyramid. The problem is we transitioned suddenly from high growth to a population crash. Now the age pyramid resembles more a propane tank shape, and the pension system went haywire. A very slow transition would be easier to adapt to.
Not what I said. That it requires an increasing number of children to adults to continue is the issue. Personal retirement accounts is a much better alternative.
Basically every major economy completely relies on the fact that there will be more workers/consumers in the future when you break that trend you break the economy. Expect South Korea, Japan and others with demographic inversions coming to have major major issues in the future.
Good or bad depends on too many other variables to easily forecast.
We could, in principle, if we really were all willing, rapidly transition to a beautiful solar-hippie future where all the food was either vegan or GM bacterial derived milk [0] or vat-grown cultured flesh. The Earth can support hundreds of billions this way using only land that is currently desert.
We almost certainly won't do that, but we could.
Conversely, rapid depopulation can mess up our economy. How rapid is too rapid? I don't know.
This outcome is IMO more plausible than the solar-hippie outcome. Still not certain, as 75 years of technological change is a lot and could very plausibility give us medicine that seems like magic today — the last 75 includes the eradication of smallpox; the first of each of kidney, heart, heart-and-lung, liver, face, uterus, womb, penis, hand, arm, and leg transplants; first each of pacemaker, cochlear implants, artificial heart; first CT, PET, medical ultrasound, and MRI; first stem cell therapy; robot assisted surgery; organ culture for lab-grown (some of the are still experimental) noses, ears, skin, kidneys, liver, and bladders; the defibrillator; oral contraceptives; genetic engineering; and too many vaccines to bother listing.
The next 75 years could, not implausibly, give us anti-aging drugs that keep us in peak health until whatever kills us; or give us external artificial wombs; or at the very least, turn skin cells into healthy sperm in-vitro.
[0] why isn't this already a thing? Vegan cheese substitutes are 45% mediocre, 45% just bad, and 10% single use case things like smoked tofu
Less people in the world. Look at Japan and South Korean population projections out 50 to 75 years -- they may cut their populations in half, and it could keep going? Hard to extrapolate trends out that far though...