Except that “risks and inventives” aren't laws of physics, they are pieces of the dogma (and worshipers dont usually see the difference between the later and the former: it is the essence of religion to believe the dogma as if it was some kind of transcendantal law)
All of these concepts have predictive power that is proven with hard data every day. And unlike physics, it's one of the most democratic realms of knowledge: if you think that these predictions are wrong, you can make yourself a lot of money.
> All of these concepts have predictive power that is proven with hard data every day
Citation needed™
> if you think that these predictions are wrong, you can make yourself a lot of money.
The market can remain irrational much longer than you can demain solvent
As Keynes summarized it in his “beauty contest” thought experiment, it's not about getting the “real” price that matters, it's about guessing what price the group is going to assign. Being “right” against the crowd gives you no point.
For one person getting away with the big short, there are a thousand that just miss the timing of the crash even though they were right on the underlying analysis.
