Yah this is going to have the opposite effect, as it will only encourage China to develop their own EUV stepper and fab development. It might take 10 years to catch up, but 10 years isn't a long time in the grand scheme of things.
Actually it might take them less than 10 years to catch up. I was at ICCAD (https://iccad.com) last week and half the papers were from China. And some of the EDA CAD software is under export controls - specifically Gate-all-around technology used in 2nm and below. Right now the big EDA vendors have developers in China who are making the software they're not allowed to sell in THEIR OWN COUNTRY.
China is basically where Japan was in the 1970s and Korea in the 1980s. Only 10 years before they become dominant in the industry.
EUV (not High-NA) is much, much more complex than Immersion Lithography—and China doesn’t have have that either—the optics (mirrors), the light source, the masks, everything under vacuum… A blank check (which the government would be happy to sign) is not enough to catch up on everything in 10 years, integrate it and then make it work reliably at a decent throughput. Not impossible, of course, which is why they are going to try.
To top it all off, a lot of this stuff is patented. Not that China cares all that much about Western patents, but violations in this area would make the geopolitical situation even more tense.
hmm, china is perfectly happy to buy any semi fab tools from Western companies, 40% of ASML sales is to China. The fact that none semi tools company were any significance before the US sanctions is the proof of that. Not only are the patents, the market, talent, money isn't there to make it a sustainable business. But u block the sale, and go max pressure, u create a huge incentive. The engineers in these companies are super happy. Now, in 2024, Chinese semi fab tools companies are moving up to near top 10 global fab tool companies. I have no doubt we will see DUV and EUV fully running on commercial fab lines in the next few years.
"China doesn’t have have that either—the optics (mirrors), the light source, the masks, everything under vacuum" are you really sure about that?
Let me help you here, a lot of this stuff are in Chinese universities. But not commercialized, cuz there is no commercial fly wheel when there are perfectly fine products on the market. Now you just gave $1B dollars to these researchers to bring it to market. This will take time, but this is an engineering, iterate and trial problem, not inventing quantum mechanics. The demand is always there, people who get it get a life time of wealth, what do you think?
You underestimate the sheer complexity of it. You’re talking $1B, I am talking a blank check. That’s probably 100s of different research teams, each with a $?B, whose “research” would have to industrialized.
Then there’s integration and SW. Not to mention performance, metrology, diagnostics.
Now you have to actually integrate these new tools into a new leading node process. This by itself takes years, assuming you have the tools. China does have existing Immersion process nodes, but still.
Even with unlimited resources, I claim China can’t have EUV within 10 years. Maybe not even 20.
A ban and a trade war is more likely to make China just toss these patents on fire. Espionage is still a thing and for the right amount of $$, they might be able to find engineers who will switch sides.
Actually it might take them less than 10 years to catch up. I was at ICCAD (https://iccad.com) last week and half the papers were from China. And some of the EDA CAD software is under export controls - specifically Gate-all-around technology used in 2nm and below. Right now the big EDA vendors have developers in China who are making the software they're not allowed to sell in THEIR OWN COUNTRY.
China is basically where Japan was in the 1970s and Korea in the 1980s. Only 10 years before they become dominant in the industry.