Given the sheer volume of cheap stuff that had been coming straight from China, and the end of de minimus, my first guess would be the majority of this is Chinese and other foreign goods that are now being imported in bulk to minimize duties and costs of handling paperwork, then distributed state-side. Lots of new business (and resulting extra costs to consumers) in logistics, without as much of an increase on the manufacturing side.
I mean, it’s not like US clothes manufacturers, for example, can compete with East Asia even with 100% tariffs (on the wholesale price). Not even close. Ditto electronics, most toys, et c. Lots and lots of really high-volume stuff that was getting drop shipped through e.g. Amazon sellers, not to mention lots of traditional US brands that were shipping straight from overseas warehouses.
