I agree that the payoff from prediction markets doesn't seem worth it for this kind of manipulation. Collectively they hold a lot of money but I'm not sure how much individuals or groups are making. That story of someone making half a million recently was an outlier rather than norm, as far as I know.
But, what if prediction markets are just used for information gathering, but the real money is made from market manipulation via prediction markets? I'm sure a lot of investment groups watch prediction markets very carefully, if they can manipulate the predictions, or be manipulated by them, the money to be made is big enough for any level of effort to be believable.
But, what if prediction markets are just used for information gathering, but the real money is made from market manipulation via prediction markets? I'm sure a lot of investment groups watch prediction markets very carefully, if they can manipulate the predictions, or be manipulated by them, the money to be made is big enough for any level of effort to be believable.