It is democratising from the perspective of non-programmers- they can now make their own tools.
What you say about big tech is true at same time though. I worry about what happens when China takes the lead and no longer feels the need to do open models. First hints already showing - advance access to ds4 only for Chinese hardware makers
I think there’s an actual barrier. I’ve seen it, especially since the (until recently) brisk market for programmers was sucking people out of traditional engineering.
It’s puzzling because programming seems so easy and fun. And even before LLM’s, we had StackOverflow after all.
But for some reason a lot of people just hit a wall when they try to learn programming, and we don’t know why. The “CS 101” course at colleges has extremely high attrition.
A minor secondary effect may have been that if you were not a software developer, your boss didn’t want to see you programming.
CS programs have high attrition rates because programming or "coding" has been touted as easy money for a couple few decades now. When people find out it's not so easy, they bail. Holding a few layers of abstractions in your head is not something that everyone does easily.
Just as keeping most of the structure of a 4-novel-long story in your head is not something everyone can do, hence why being a successful author is not something that everyone can do. Start telling everyone that being a novelist is easy money, though, and you'll see Comp 101 courses filling up and the attrition rate correspondingly go through the roof.
This is literally the same for all professions, only in CS/SE it is for some unknown fucking reason considered “a problem”. Why isn’t there “replace extremely expensive doctors/lawyers with AI” movement?
Because programmers made the LLMs, and they first applied it to the problems they know, so the examples of "replacing a programmer" are abundant. Then the hype train rolled in and now it's suddenly going to replace everything, just that software engineering is the low-hanging fruit since they already have "proof" that it works in that domain.
Hint: it actually doesn't work at real depth, and why not is fairly well explained in TFA: they hype always overestimates the depth of the field. So these advances do help to make easy thing easy (in the case of LLMs because they have been trained on a billion examples of the easy stuff), but don't really end up helping with the hard things (because they really only make new things that weren't encompassed in their training by getting lucky, and because tedious things are different than hard things).
Overly optimistic people are already talking about using LLM based AI as a way to provide healthcare access in underserved (i.e. rural) areas. There's already lots of studies going on for things like using AI to identify tumors and cancers in MRI and other images.
There's national headlines every few months for lawyers getting in trouble for submitting LLM hallucinated citations in court, so lawyers are starting to do it to themselves as well.
It's early days yet, because unlike most CRUD apps, the consequences of hallucinations and outright bad calls in medicine and law are life ending. Unless the bubble pops soon, it's coming though.
Yeah. There's a barrier also for professional surfing, soccer, cinema acting, submarine soldering, cooking.
Lots of people bought thousand dollars worth of cooking books and still make food their dogs turn the noses with disgust at.
Maybe there's some fucking talent requirement to do that stuff, even if just a little bit, to the despair of all Project/Product Manager types that secretly hate and despise software engineers.
Anyone could make their own tools before this as well. Just needed to learn something first.
Real democratizing or programming is free access to compilers, SDKs, etc. AI coding does nothing to help that. In fact, it hurts it, because those non-programmers only get access to the AI tools on the terms of the AI companies. Sure they could train their own models, but then we're back to having to learn things.
One day people will not even be able to own computers anymore. They will be owned, controlled and rented out by corporate elites for limited purposes only. The personal computer will probably either cease to exist due to economic factors. It will probably be made illegal for citizens to own free computers. We'll probably need licenses to operate one.
The mere concept of people "making their own tools" is just comical in this bleak timeline.
There’s definitely a type. My wife is much smarter and harder working than me, near perfect SAT score, made it through an engineering degree at a much better school than I went to. Then did med school, residency, and fellowship.
She’s insanely quick. I once told her about one way hashing and before I was even half way through the explanation. Before I and ever said a thing about what they were used for she stops me and says “oh so that’s why websites can’t just send you your password when you forget it”.
At her job she has to call time of death for kids, tell people their kid has cancer, deal with people who literally want her dead, work shifts where she is the one ultimately responsible for the life and death of every patient that walks in the door, and work 7a-4p one day then 10p-7a the next.
She can do all that but she says that she hated her Matlab class in college more than anything else and she could absolutely never do my job because she doesn’t have it in her to bang her head against a wall chasing down a bug for an hour that turns out to be a typo.
... if they are privileged enough to be able to take time away from family and jobs.
The current crop of LLMs are subsidised enough to make this learning less expensive for those with little of both time and money. That's what's meant by democratised.
The US losing the plot doesn’t change the fact that the tech is fundamentally democraticism on a personal level.
If all the frontier models disappear into autocratic dark holes then yeah we have a problem but the fundamental freedom gain an “individuals can make tools without knowing coding” isn’t going anywhere
You'd bet that if LLMs were democratizing, they'd be 100's of feet away from it.
That they're charging in suggests it can be just as feudal as every other technology. It has no moral value. It's a tool; a butcher can swing an axe in the kitchen as much as in the battlefield.
What you say about big tech is true at same time though. I worry about what happens when China takes the lead and no longer feels the need to do open models. First hints already showing - advance access to ds4 only for Chinese hardware makers