I don't disagree with most of your post, but I still think the basic message of the blog post is valid.
Obviously, if developers in AAA or indie sector knew that this kind of huge success could be had with a game like this, they would have made it. But it's humbling to consider that no matter how long people make games, nobody knows the formula for the making next big hit. I don't think he's trying to say that AAA or indie developers are dumb.
AAA developers aren't trying to make games that earn $50K/day (while a game is getting 1MM+ installs per day). AAA developers can spend $100MM+ in development costs and are looking for titles that can make $200K/day or launch and make $75MM on day 1.
Indie developers would love to make this type of game, but the fact is that even with the monumental success the game has had from a download perspective (50MM downloads), it's still only making $50K/day. That's like winning the lottery. Most indie devs are going to make games that get downloaded fewer than 1 million times, which, for a title like this, isn't going to make more than 1-2 employee salaries (let alone the up-front cost of building the game for the first X months for free).
That's all true, but I still think that if anyone (indie, AAA, or otherwise) knew they could have the no 1 spot in the app store simply by making Flapper (a relatively small investment to develop), they would have done it. Even if the game is free, the publicity alone is worth a huge amount.
I feel like you're saying if indie, AAA knew the lottery numbers for next week they would have bought a ticket. Which of course they would have. But I don't see this game as something that is repeatable. It seems literally like winning the lottery, whether or not you can get a simple game in the app store to be such a success.
So I don't see the value in saying that nobody knew. In the same way saying someone didn't know next weeks lottery numbers doesn't make them incompetent or the person who won the lottery a genius (or have some special insight).
I didn't call the other game developers incompetent and I don't think the Flapper developer is a genius.
I'm just saying that art is pretty mysterious and despite the fact that people have been making video games for quite a while now, no one knows the formula for the next big hit and somehow the next hit always finds new and old ways to surprise us. But just my $0.02 ^_^
We know a lot of very effective formulas. Thats not to say all profit comes from games that follow formulas, but the formulas certainly make it more likely.
There's a huge difference between AAA developers and indie developers. To say that a AAA dev would make games like Flappy Bird if they knew it would work is like saying a teacher would have chosen a career in underwater welding if he knew how lucrative underwater welding is.
Obviously, if developers in AAA or indie sector knew that this kind of huge success could be had with a game like this, they would have made it. But it's humbling to consider that no matter how long people make games, nobody knows the formula for the making next big hit. I don't think he's trying to say that AAA or indie developers are dumb.